Dr. Pierre-Nicolas Schwab is the founding father of IntoTheMinds, a market analysis web site with wonderful analytical data on many market segments, together with luxurious watches. Schwab has kindly allowed us to republish this text monitoring the worth evolution of Patek Philippe’s Nautilus, together with a breakdown of which exact fashions, case supplies, and even bracelet choices have appreciated probably the most.
Dr. Pierre-Nicolas Schwab writes:
How a lot does a Patek Philippe Nautilus value? How will Nautilus costs evolve?
Answering these questions, as related as they’re, has turn into extraordinarily troublesome following the bubble formed in the luxury men’s watch market. Some fashions have seen their costs explode. The Nautilus from Patek Philippe is one in all them. This text analyzes the worth historical past of 31 Patek Philippe Nautilus fashions. We reveal the fashions which have gained an absolute worth, probably the most dramatic relative will increase, and the affect of case and bracelet materials. These analyses are indispensable if you wish to make investments or just deal with your self.
To appreciate this analysis, we based mostly ourselves on this guide devoted to the Patek Philippe Nautilus to cowl probably the most important fashions. We’ve chosen 37 Nautilus fashions, which one can find listed on the finish of this text.
For every of them, we now have collected historic gross sales knowledge and analyzed the evolution of a number of indicators between January 2018 and February 2022:
- absolutely the acquire in Euros, i.e., the distinction between the watch’s citation in February 2022 and January 2018
- the share acquire to take into consideration the numerous worth variations between Nautilus fashions
- the affect of the case materials
- the affect of the bracelet materials
You’ll word that for a number of the fashions we pre-selected, we couldn’t discover sufficient knowledge. We’ve subsequently excluded them from the calculations. These are the Patek Philippe Nautilus references 5968A-001, 5968A-001, 5719/10G-010, 5724R-001, 5168G-010, and 4700/51.
Finally, the evaluation targeted on the information collected for 31 Nautilus fashions.
Which Patek Philippe Nautilus fashions have elevated in worth probably the most?
The primary evaluation we ship is in regards to the positive aspects in absolute worth.
The mannequin that has gained probably the most worth is the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5976/1G-001: its worth has elevated by nearly €550,000 since 2018. This white gold model was released in 2016 for the 40th anniversary of the Nautilus. This anniversary mannequin was a restricted version (1,300 items) and was, logically, reserved for the model’s greatest prospects.
One instance offered in Could 2022 at Christie’s for €915,000, effectively above its excessive estimate. This was undoubtedly on account of its mint situation, which made this instance significantly fascinating to patrons and made it an thrilling funding piece.
On the second step of the rostrum is the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1R-001. That is an all rose gold mannequin that might have been produced in roughly 1,200 items. This mannequin had quickly elevated, and on the peak of its kind in February 2022 it had a median acquire of practically €330,000. The market has since circled, and the 5711/1R-001 has fallen considerably. Recent auction results present a price of roughly $200,000.
On the third step of the rostrum is the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1R-001. It is a pink gold Nautilus (case and bracelet) with the identical complication (chronograph) because the anniversary mannequin 5976/1G-001 on the rostrum’s high step. This mannequin has been very modern and in February 2022 had a median promoting worth €290,000 larger than in January 2018. Since then, the speculative bubble has been deflating, and examples have been offered at auctions for under $300,000. That is removed from a great deal, however it’s clear that some fashions had been benefiting from a craze pushed by hypothesis.
Patek Philippe Nautilus: which fashions have exploded probably the most in relative worth?
Having seemed on the appreciation of the assorted Patek Philippe Nautilus fashions, let’s now have a look at the relative enhance (in proportion) during the last 4 years. The listing costs of the Nautilus fashions fluctuate enormously: from lower than €30,000 for the Nautilus 5711 in metal to greater than €100,000 for the Nautilus 5740 white gold perpetual calendar. To multiply your stake, not all Nautilus fashions are equal.
A minimum of seven Patek Philippe Nautilus fashions elevated in worth by no less than 400% between January 2018 and February 2022, when the luxurious males’s watch market peaked.
The Nautilus 5711/1R-001 talked about within the earlier paragraph has seen its worth enhance by 744%! It’s far forward of the opposite fashions, most of that are manufactured from metal.
- 3700 (the historic mannequin created by Patek Philippe within the Seventies)
- 5164R-001 (the one one in all these fashions in pink gold)
What affect does the case materials have on the worth of a Patek Philippe Nautilus?
Logic would dictate that valuable metals are probably the most wanted and outperform watches manufactured from much less noble supplies. This isn’t the case. Our evaluation reveals that metal Nautilus fashions have skilled probably the most dramatic progress within the final 4 years.
The metal Nautilus grew 361% from 2018 to the February 2022 peak. That’s barely higher than rose gold’s 332% and the gold/metal mixture’s 316%. When it comes to valuation, the takeoff was from November 2020.
Nautilus in metal, rose gold, and gold/metal are those which have progressed probably the most. White gold elevated by “solely” 172%. Yellow gold appears to be the “unloved” materials since Nautilus fashions manufactured from this materials have elevated by solely 33% in 4 years. So, there may be clearly a disaffection of patrons towards yellow gold.
Affect of the bracelet materials on the worth of the Patek Philippe Nautilus
The final evaluation considerations the affect of the strap materials. Sporty fashions such because the Nautilus are very effectively suited to a bracelet in the identical steel because the case. For the reason that speculative bubble within the luxurious watch market is principally centered round sporty fashions (Nautilus, Aquanaut, Royal Oak, Rolex), the affect of the kind of bracelet/strap was value asking about. Spoiler alert ☢ the end result just isn’t what you suppose.
The evaluation reveals that it’s the fashions with non-metallic bracelets which have elevated probably the most. The rise is 383% in comparison with January 2018. For steel bracelets, the rise is “solely” 297%. Nonetheless, our pattern has a big majority of steel bracelets, which may bias the outcomes.
The 37 Patek Philippe Nautilus fashions analyzed on this article:
Dr. Pierre-Nicolas Schwab is the founding father of IntoTheMinds. He focuses on e-commerce, retail and logistics. He’s additionally a analysis fellow within the advertising and marketing division of the Free College of Brussels and acts as a coach for a number of startups and public organizations. He holds a PhD in advertising and marketing, an MBA in finance, and an MSc in chemistry. You may learn extra of his analytical articles at www.intotheminds.com.